=======================================
“Free oxygen not only supports life: it arises from life.”
Preston Cloud and Aharon Gibor
“The Oxygen Cycle” Scientific American, Sept 1970
=====================================

The basics are simple — Plant life takes CO2
from the atmosphere, uses the C to build its own
tissues, and frees the O2 required for support of
other forms of life.

Forests are responsible for most of the O2 freed
on land. Recent studies indicate that
climate-driven forest death is emerging as a
global phenomenon.

Phytoplankton are responsible for the O2 freed
from (increasingly acidified) oceans. So, I
couldn’t help but take note of the comment below.
Lance
———————————————————————–
“In sufficient concentration, the acidity can …
interfere with oxygen supply. ”
————————————————————————————————-
Carnegie Institution
release date: 19-Sep-2007

CO2 emissions could violate EPA ocean-quality standards within decades

Stanford, CA. — In a commentary in the September
25, 2007, issue of the Geophysical Research
Letters (GRL), a large team of scientists state
that human-induced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
will alter ocean chemistry to the point where it
will violate U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Quality Criteria [1976] by mid-century if
emissions are not dramatically curtailed now.
This is the first recognition that atmospheric
CO2 emissions will cause ocean waters to violate
EPA water quality criteria.

The paper also says that carbon-dioxide induced
“changes in ocean chemistry within the ranges
predicted for the next decades and centuries
present significant risks to marine biota” and
that “adverse impacts on food webs and key
biogeochemical process” would result.

An international team of twenty five leading
researchers described the evidence to date
regarding the effects of CO2 emissions on the
acidity of the world’s oceans.

“About 1/3 of the CO2 from fossil-fuel burning is
absorbed by the world’s oceans,” explained lead
author Ken Caldeira from the Carnegie Institution
Department of Global Ecology. “When CO2 gas
dissolves in the ocean it makes carbonic acid
which can damage coral reefs and also hurt other
calcifying organisms, such as phytoplankton and
zooplankton, some of the most critical players at
the bottom of the world’s food chain. In
sufficient concentration, the acidity can corrode
shellfish shells, disrupt coral formation, and
interfere with oxygen supply. ”

Most of the research today points to a future
where, in the absence of a major effort to
curtail carbon dioxide emissions, there will be
double the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 (760
parts per million, or ppm) by century’s end.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations could
reach 500 ppm by mid-century. Pre-industrial
concentrations, by comparison, were 280 ppm and
today’s concentration is about 380 ppm.

The acidity from CO2 dissolved in ocean water is
measured by the pH scale (potential of Hydrogen).
Declines in pH indicate that a solution is more
acidic. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
[1976] Quality Criteria for Water state: “For
open ocean waters where the depth is
substantially greater than the euphotic zone, the
pH should not be changed more than 0.2 units
outside the range of naturally occurring
variation Å ” The euphotic zone goes to a depth of
about 650 feet (200 meters), where light can
still reach and photosynthesis can occur.

“Atmospheric CO2 concentrations need to remain at
less than 500 ppm for the ocean pH decrease to
stay within the 0.2 limit set forth by the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency [1976],” remarked
Caldeira. “If atmospheric CO2 goes above 500 ppm,
the surface of the entire ocean will be out of
compliance with EPA pH guidelines for the open
ocean. We need to start thinking about carbon
dioxide as an ocean pollutant. That is, when we
release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, we are
dumping industrial waste in the ocean.”

Keeping atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
below 500 ppm level would require a rapid global
transition to a system of energy production and
consumption that releases very little carbon
dioxide to the atmosphere.

###

The study was led by Ken Caldeira of Carnegie
Institution’s Department of Global Ecology.
Included are researchers from Norway, the United
Kingdom, France, Australia, Japan, Monaco, and
the United States. Co-authors of the study are:

David Archer, University of Chicago, USA (d-archer@uchicago.edu)

James P. Barry, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, USA (barry@mbari.org)

Richard G. J. Bellerby. 1 – Bjerknes Centre for
Climate Research, Norway
(richard.bellerby@bjerknes.uib.no)

Peter G. Brewer, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, USA (brpe@mbari.org)

Long Cao, Carnegie Institution, USA (longcao@stanford.edu)

Andrew G. Dickson, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA (adickson@ucsd.edu)

Scott C. Doney, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA (sdoney@whoi.edu)

Harry Elderfield, University of Cambridge, UK (he101@esc.cam.ac.uk)

Victoria Fabry, California State University San Marcos, USA (fabry@csusm.edu)

Richard A. Feely, Pacific Marine Environmental
Laboratory, USA (Richard.A.Feely@noaa.gov)

Jean-Pierre Gattuso, CNRS, Laboratoire
d’océanographie de Villefranche, France
(gattuso@obs-vlfr.fr)

Peter M. Haugan, University of Bergen, Norway (Peter.Haugan@gfi.uib.no)

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Queensland, Australia (oveh@uq.edu.au)

Atul K. Jain, University of Illinois
(Urbana-Champaign), USA (jain@atmos.uiuc.edu)

Joan A. Kleypas, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, USA (kleypas@ucar.edu)

Chris Langdon, Rosenstiel School of Marine and
Atmospheric Science, USA
(clangdon@rsmas.miami.edu)

James C. Orr, IAEA Marine Environment
Laboratories (MEL), Monaco (j.orr@iaea.org)

Andy Ridgwell, School of Geographical Sciences,
University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
(andy@seao2.org)

Christopher L. Sabine, Pacific Marine
Environmental Laboratory, USA
(Chris.Sabine@noaa.gov)

Brad Seibel, University of Rhode Island, USA (seibel@uri.edu)

Yoshihisa Shirayama, Kyoto University, Japan (yshira@bigfoot.com)

Carol Turley, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK (ct@pml.ac.uk)

Andrew J Watson, University of East Anglia, UK (a.j.watson@uea.ac.uk)

Richard E. Zeebe, University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA (zeebe@soest.hawaii.edu)

Carnegie’s department of Global Ecology was
founded in 2002 on the campus of Stanford
University. Its staff conducts basic research on
the interactions among Earth’s ecosystems, land,
atmosphere, and oceans to understand how the
interactions shape the behavior of the Earth
system, including its response to future change.
The Carnegie Institution
(www.CarnegieInstitution.org) has been a
pioneering force in basic scientific research
since 1902. It is a private, nonprofit
organization with six research departments
throughout the U.S. Carnegie scientists are
leaders in plant biology, developmental biology,
astronomy, materials science, global ecology, and
Earth and planetary science.

The Courier-Journal (Louisville, Kentucky U.S.)
Monday, September 17, 2007

UPDATED: 1:24 PM
Wildlife managers mull climate change impacts

By James Bruggers
jbruggers@courier-journal.com
The Courier-Journal

An association of wildlife managers is taking on global warming for the first time at
its annual conference this week in Louisville.

With decisions being made now on how to address global warming, wildlife managers “need to
be at the table,” said Rachel Brittin, spokeswoman for the Association of Fish & Wildlife
Agencies, which is meeting at the Galt House through Thursday.

About 800 people are expected to attend the conference, she said.

During a keynote address and two panel discussions this morning, participants heard how
climate changes were already affecting fish and wildlife, and how an anticipated warming
in the coming decades could put some species, such as ducks and trout, under extreme stress.

Wildlife managers will need to support efforts to reduce emissions and enhance the planet’s
ability to absorb greenhouse gases, said Virginia Burkett, chief scientist for global change
research at the U.S. Geological Survey.

They will also need to help fish and wildlife species and the public adapt to the changes, she added.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

——————————————————————————————–
Joint Meeting : Ecological Society of America &
Society for Ecological Restoration
Thursday, August 9, 2007: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
B3&4, San Jose McEnery Convention Center

OOS 42 – Climate-induced forest dieback as an
emergent global phenomenon: Patterns, mechanisms,
and projections

Evidence of climate change effects on the
biosphere is accumulating rapidly, including
recent examples of climate-induced forest
dieback. Although relatively few examples of
widespread forest dieback events have been
documented to-date, some mortality events have
had extensive ecological impacts. Increasing
numbers of recent studies demonstrate forest
stress and dieback at local to regional scales,
but currently lacking is a global overview of
forest dieback, and sufficient mechanistic
knowledge to enable accurate modeling and
predictions of climate-induced woody plant
mortality.

The overall goal of this organized oral session
is to present a current synthesis of forest
dieback as an emergent global phenomenon, which
will include: (1) a globally comprehensive
overview and synthesis developed from ongoing
research, case studies, and existing literature;
(2) continental-scale summaries of mortality
patterns and processes of climate-induced dieback
from around the world, including detailed case
studies; (3) plant physiological perspectives on
water use, carbon balance, and resistance to
insect attacks, emphasizing current understanding
and knowledge gaps; and (4) current and potential
applications of available knowledge to regional
and global scale modeling and prediction of
forest dieback, key areas needed to improve
current models, and existing and potential
applications to assessments and mitigation of
potential climate change impacts. We will
evaluate the extent to which recently observed
dieback events are unusual relative to historic
background patterns.

Our session documents climate-induced forest
dieback from all forested continents, including:
1) drought impacts in Patagonia and the Amazon
Basin; 2) dieback of multiple forest species in
the West African Sahel; 3) dieback of several
European species of Pinus and Quercus in multiple
mountain ranges across Mediterranean Portugal,
Spain, and France; 4) eucalyptus dieback in
Australia; and 5) substantial episodes of recent
forest mortality in North America from Alaska to
Mexico, such as >1,000,000 ha of pinyon (Pinus
edulis) dieback in the southwestern US since
2002. These case studies are highly relevant to a
broad array of ecologists because they represent
vegetation changes in response to climate
variation and change that can span across
individuals, populations, communities, and
ecosystems.

Organizer:      Craig D. Allen, Jemez Mountains Field Station
Co-organizer:      David D. Breshears, University of Arizona
Moderator:     David D. Breshears, University of Arizona

1:30 PM OOS 42-5                Climate-induced
forest dieback as an emergent global phenomenon:
Overview and synthesis
Craig D. Allen, U.S. Geological Survey, Jemez
Mountains Field Station, David D. Breshears,
University of Arizona, Nathan L. Stephenson,
United States Geological Survey, Phillip J. Van
Mantgem, United States Geological Survey

1:50 PM OOS 42-6                Drought
down-under: Dieback controls of tree dynamics in
Australian savanna
Roderick J. Fensham, Queensland Herbarium

2:10 PM OOS 42-7                Rapid forest
dieback and warm drought in Northern Patagonia,
South America
Thomas Kitzberger, Universidad Nacional del
Comahue, Marí­a Laura Suarez, Universidad Nacional
del Comahue

2:30 PM OOS 42-8                Climate-induced
dieback of forest species and a shift of
vegetation zones across West Africa
Patrick Gonzalez, The Nature Conservancy, Compton
J. Tucker, National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, Hamady Sy, Réseau du Systí¨me
d’Alerte Précoce contre la Famine

2:50 PM OOS 42-9                Forest dieback in
Europe: Climate drivers, symptoms, and
physiological processes
Jorge Castro, Universidad de Granada, Carlos A.
Gracia, Universidad de Barcelona, Regino Zamora,
Universidad de Granada, Rafael Navarro,
Universidad de Cordoba, Michel Vennetier,
CEMAGREF, Claude Gadbin-Henry, Institut
Méditerranéen d’Ecologie et Paléoécologie,
Laurent Borgniet, CEMAGREF

3:20 PM OOS 42-2                Dieback of
forests and woodlands across elevational
gradients in response to global-change-type
drought in the southwestern US, North America

Neil Cobb, Northern Arizona University, Kirsten
Ironside, Northern Arizona University, John D.
Shaw, USDA Forest Service, Kiona Ogle, University
of Wyoming, Craig D. Allen, Jemez Mountains Field
Station, David D. Breshears, University of
Arizona, Michael Clifford, Northern Arizona
University

3:40 PM OOS 42-1                Causes and
impacts of woody canopy dieoff in a semi-arid
woodland: Role of climate, pathogens, and
phenology

Amanda B. White, Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Donatella Pasqualini, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Paul M. Rich, Creekside Center for
Earth Observation, Nate McDowell, Los Alamos
National Laboratory, David D. Breshears,
University of Arizona

4:00 PM OOS 42-4                Modeling the
future redistribution of pinyon-juniper woodland
species

Kirsten Ironside, Northern Arizona University,
Kenneth L. Cole, USGS Southwest Biological
Science Center, Neil Cobb, Northern Arizona
University, John D. Shaw, USDA Forest Service,
Phillip Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory

4:20 PM OOS 42-3                A hydraulic
framework for understanding mechanisms of woody
plant survival and mortality during drought

Nate G. McDowell, Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Will Pockman, University of New Mexico

4:40 PM OOS 42-10               Global modeling
and prediction of climate-induced forest dieback

Ronald P. Neilson, USDA Forest Service, Dominique
Bachelet, The Nature Conservancy, Stephen W.
Running, Numerical Terradynamics Simulation Group,
________________________________________________________-

———————-
“It is like my grandmother suddenly growing
taller and dunking a basketball or playing
football,” said Pederson. “It’s not supposed to
happen.”

“Pederson’s ring research also shows that younger
trees are growing faster at the same stage of
life compared to their old-growth ancestors, said
Pederson. It’s hard to say what that might mean
for tree longevity, but both researchers say it
is possible that sped-up trees might die sooner.”
——————-

StarTribune (Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S.)
September 14, 2007 – 10:31 AM

Trees telling a tale of climate change

Tree-growth patterns may be just one more indication of global warming.

By Brian Nearing, Albany Times Union

ESPERANCE, N.Y. – If a grandmother suddenly
started growing, something would be amiss. Now
research has found that something similar is
happening to the nation’s oldest trees.

Clues found in old-growth tree rings from
Michigan to Maine show an increasing growth spurt
during the last century, possibly from global
climate change, according to Neil Pederson, an
assistant professor at Eastern Kentucky
University.

Normally, trees, like people, slow growth as they
age, said Pederson. But ring patterns in oaks,
poplars and cedars — some up to 400 years old —
instead show trees started growing faster in
recent decades.

“It is like my grandmother suddenly growing
taller and dunking a basketball or playing
football,” said Pederson. “It’s not supposed to
happen.”

He said it is likely that global warming is
behind the change. “The most important factor to
limit growth in trees is low winter temperature,”
he said.

Since starting his research while at the
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia
University in New York City, Pederson has
collected more than 1,600 tree ring samples. In
New York state, some specimens came from Fred
Breglia, horticulture and operations director of
Landis Arboretum in Esperance.

Winter has been gradually retreating from New
York and neighboring states for four decades,
according to research by Cameron Wake, a
professor at the Climate Change Research Center
at the University of New Hampshire.

In the 1970s, there was an average of 87 days
with snow on the ground — two weeks longer than
now. Average winter temperatures have climbed 4.5
degrees.

Warmer weather also means more rain to fuel tree
growth. Snow now accounts for about 70 percent of
winter precipitation, down from 80 percent,
according to Wake.

In looking at rings from 230 Atlantic white
cedars from Maine to North Carolina, he found
trees from New Jersey and north showed
accelerated growth rates for the last 80 years,
while trees south of that were unchanged.

Breglia agreed with Pederson’s view. He said he
has also seen similar growth spurt patterns in
600-year-old black gums that he sampled in
Saratoga County, N.Y., which is the northernmost
edge of the species range.

Pederson’s ring research also shows that younger
trees are growing faster at the same stage of
life compared to their old-growth ancestors, said
Pederson. It’s hard to say what that might mean
for tree longevity, but both researchers say it
is possible that sped-up trees might die sooner.

© 2007 Star Tribune. All rights reserved.

______________________________________________________

—————–
“Even more worrying, a study conducted by ICRAM, Italy’s marine
research institute, indicates the temperature increases are creeping
into the cold depths of the Mediterranean.

“These temperature rises could wipe out ‘up to 50 percent of the
species,’ the study said.”
———————————————————————————–

Associated Press
Experts: Climate Change Puts Sea at Risk

By ARIEL DAVID – 14 hours ago

ROME (AP) – Climate change is affecting Europe faster than the rest
of the world and rising temperatures could transform the
Mediterranean into a salty and stagnant sea, Italian experts said
Wednesday.

Warmer waters and increased salinity could doom many of the sea’s
plant and animal species and ravage the fishing industry, warned
participants at a two-day climate change conference that brought
together some 2,000 scientists and officials in Rome.

“Europe and the Mediterranean are warming up faster than the rest of
the world,” said climatologist Filippo Giorgi. “It’s a climate change
hot spot, one of the areas where we actually see the change
happening.”

Scientists still don’t know why the region is more sensitive to
climate change, but Giorgi said that in the next decades, temperature
increases hitting Europe during the summer months could be 40 percent
to 50 percent higher than elsewhere.

Giorgi said the effects would be similar to those felt during the
deadly summer of 2003, when the extraordinary heat was blamed for the
deaths of tens of thousands of people in Europe and millions of
dollars in agricultural losses.

“That was a one-in-a-million freak event, but in the future it will
be the norm for the summer,” said Giorgi, who is a top official in
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a U.N. network of
2,000 scientists.

The change is also being felt at sea level, with a surface
temperature increase of 1 degree every decade, said Vincenzo Ferrara,
an Italian government adviser on climate.

“The Mediterranean is becoming warmer and saltier” due to increased
evaporation, Ferrara told the conference, which was held at the
Rome-based U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.

Ferrara said this could disrupt the flow at the Strait of Gibraltar,
a key gateway to the Mediterranean. The higher salt concentration in
the Mediterranean would cause water to flow out into the Atlantic
Ocean, as opposed to Atlantic water coming into the Mediterranean,
which serves as the sea’s lifeline.

Even more worrying, a study conducted by ICRAM, Italy’s marine
research institute, indicates the temperature increases are creeping
into the cold depths of the Mediterranean.

Measurements conducted last winter off Italy’s western coast at a
depth of up to 300 feet showed temperatures were about 3.6 degrees
above average.

Temperature differences between the sea’s layers create the currents
that allow the Mediterranean’s waters to mix and bring up fresh
nutrients to feed the algae that form the basic diet of most fish
species, according to the study.

These temperature rises could wipe out “up to 50 percent of the
species,” the study said. The decline in the algae population
measured last winter also reduced by 30 percent the sea’s ability to
absorb carbon dioxide, one of the gases blamed by scientists for
heating the atmosphere like a greenhouse.

“Ocean-atmosphere processes are dynamically changing in response to
anthropogenic forcing.” Parmesan, Camille. “Ecological and
Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change.” Annual Review of
Evolution, Ecology, and Systematics. 2006. 37: 637-69

_______________________________________________________________________–

SCIENCE
VOL 317 14 SEPTEMBER 2007

Can Palm Oil Plantations Come Clean?

Under fire for their poor environmental record, makers of the world’s
top vegetable oil are turning to scientists for advice on how to make their
industry sustainable

ECOLOGY

NEWSFOCUS

TELUK INTAN, MALAYSIA-A canary-yellow machine lumbers onto a fallow
oil palm field and, with a roar of its motor, rips into a pile of fronds and
shavings of dead trunks. As plantation operators and scientists
observe the mulching process, their guide, Cheriachangel
Mathews, a senior manager at United Plantations’Jendarata Estate,
warns that the group has been infiltrated. “We have a journalist with us,” he says. “I
want him and all of you to know that nothing here-nothing-is wasted.”

Mathews has good reason to be concerned about the take-home message.
With prices soaring, palm oil, Malaysia’s number-one crop, has recently surpassed
soybean as the top-selling vegetable oil in the world. Oil squeezed from palm fruit
bunches is an ingredient in myriad products, from ice cream to soap, and it is being
touted as a biofuel that can stem reliance on fossil fuels. But the industry has been taking a
mulching in the press. Environmental groups have accused plantations of razing
forests to plant the lucrative crop and slaughtering orangutans that pilfer and eat the fruit.

Hoping to turn over a new frond, the oil palm industry is now
endeavoring to demon- strate its sustainability. It faces an uphill battle.

A just-completed review by three dozen academics details species
declines pinned on the oil palm, a native of West Africa that has become a dominant feature
of Southeast Asia’s landscape. It is an “unavoidable fact that the
replacement of diverse tropical forest with an exotic monoculture
significantly impacts biodiversity,” states the Biodiversity and Oil
Palm Briefing Document. It will be presented at a gathering in
November of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), in which
industry officials, scientists, and other parties are hammering out a
voluntary certification scheme for minimizing harm to the environment.

Scientists and like-minded industry insiders hoping to curb
destructive growth may get help from the market. Rising palm oil prices are strangling demand
for palm as a biofuel, Edgare Kerkwijk, managing director of the BioX Group, a
renewable-energy company in Singapore, told the International Palm Oil Congress in Kuala
Lumpur late last month. That’s bitter news for companies in Southeast Asia that have been
racing to ramp up capacity to process palm into biodiesel. With crude
palm oil now topping $700 per ton, “we believe that palm oil is not a long-term bio-fuel,”
Kerkwijk said.

The industry, nevertheless, is riding high.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO), global palm oil production last year was 37 million tons, 85% from Indonesia
and Malaysia. Palm oil yields-2.8 tons per hectare, on average-are seven times
those of soybean oil, according to FAO. Aiming for even higher yields, the Asiatic
Centre for Genome Technology in Kuala Lumpur and Synthetic Genomics, a company in
Rockville, Maryland, founded by J. Craig Venter, in July announced a partnership to
sequence and analyze the oil palm genome.Higher yields are vital to an industry
looking to clean up its act. Seen from the air, peninsular Malaysia
is a patchwork of settlements and plantations interspersed with
forest; in 2003, the peninsula had more than half of the country’s
3.7 million hectares of oil palm.

Malaysian officials maintain that plantations are now allowed to
expand only onto existing agricultural fields or degraded land. Indonesia
is a different story.  There, renegade plantations fuel expansion through timber
sales. “At the state level, there are no clear limits on plantation growth,”
says Reza Azmi, director of Wild Asia, a company in Kuala Lumpur that
is advising plantations in both countries on how to limit their
environmental footprint.

RSPO was formed 5 years ago to turn the positive environmental record
of outfits suchas United Plantations into a competitive advantage through the
certification of “sustainable palm oil.” To bolster this effort, a network of
researchers drew on a wealth of data to assess the impact of plantations on biodiversity.

An advanced draft of the document provided to Science paints a grim
picture. The authors, led by Emily Fitzherbert of the Zooogical Society of London,
summarize research documenting shifts in biodiversity in and around
plantations. In Sumatra, for example, less than 10% of birds
and mammals found in primary forests live
in plantations, and more than 75% of bat species were lost; in
Thailand, 41 bird species were found in plantations, com- pared to
108 species in nearby tropical forests.

“Plantations need to accept that oil palm is not compatible with
biodiversity,” says report co-author Matthew Struebig of Queen Mary,
University of London, U.K. “Environmental groups and scientists need to work with,
not against, the industry to help them minimize this impact.”

The document delivers a clear bottom line to RSPO: “The most
immediate and important action needed to prevent further biodiversity
loss is to ensure that oil palm expansion does not contribute to
deforestation.” The report also highlights how pro-active management
can reduce species losses, for example by salvaging native stands
inside plantations. Wild Asia is working with plantations on plans to
link fragments into “natural corridors” and set aside
50 of every 2000 hectares for forest regeneration. “Two years ago,”
says Azmi, “this dis-cussion would never have happened.”

-RICHARD STONE

Published by AAAS

————————————-
“efforts to understand the impact of such changes on society and
analyze mitigation and adaptation strategies are still relatively
immature. … inadequate progress in supporting
decision making, studying regional impacts, and communicating with a
wider group of stakeholders. … place more emphasis on understanding
how people will be affected by climate change and how they might
react,”
————————————-

Public release date: 13-Sep-2007

The National Academies

US Climate Change Science Program making good progress in documenting
and understanding changes

WASHINGTON — Climate change research directed by the federal
government has made good progress in documenting and understanding
temperature trends and related environmental changes on a global
scale, says a new report from the National Research Council. The
ability to predict future climate changes also has improved, but
efforts to understand the impact of such changes on society and
analyze mitigation and adaptation strategies are still relatively
immature, added the committee that wrote the report. Moreover, the
U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), which oversees federal
research in this area, has made inadequate progress in supporting
decision making, studying regional impacts, and communicating with a
wider group of stakeholders.

“CCSP, an important initiative that has broadened our knowledge of
climate change, needs to package more of that knowledge for
policymakers from the national to local level, and place more
emphasis on understanding how people will be affected by climate
change and how they might react,” said committee chair Veerabhadran
Ramanathan, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric and Climate
Sciences at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of
California, San Diego.

Adjustments will have to be made in the balance between basic science
and applications if CCSP is to achieve its vision of producing
information that can be used to formulate strategies for preventing,
mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change, the
committee stated. It did not offer recommendations for how to sustain
and improve the program’s basic science while strengthening its
applications, but this will be among the subjects considered in a
follow-up report that the committee expects to issue early next year.

The report was requested by CCSP’s former director, who asked the
Research Council to develop a process for evaluating the program and
to conduct a preliminary assessment of its progress. The committee’s
report is the first review of CCSP’s progress since the program was
established in 2002.

The committee developed a two-stage evaluation process. The first
stage, presented in this report, assesses the strengths and
weaknesses of the entire program, and identifies areas where progress
has not met expectations and that should be subject to more detailed
analysis during a second stage of evaluation. This second stage, to
be completed by CCSP because it requires detailed budget and
management information not readily available to the committee, would
diagnose the reasons for weaknesses and identify strategies for
improving the program.

In its review, the committee concluded that discovery science and
understanding of the overall climate system are proceeding well. For
example, knowledge of the nature and extent of atmospheric warming
and other climate changes over the past few decades and the influence
of human activities on these observed changes has advanced
significantly. In addition, models that have demonstrated reasonable
success in reproducing past climate conditions are improving
confidence in future projections. Understanding of the water cycle
has also improved, and good progress has been made in documenting
land-use changes and estimating how carbon is distributed around the
planet.

Uncertainties remain in other aspects of global climate change,
particularly the role of man-made aerosols in masking greenhouse
warming, the response of hurricanes and ice sheets to global warming,
and how climate feedbacks — the dynamics of water vapor and clouds,
for example — amplify or dampen the effects of greenhouse gases and
other climate-change forces.

Overall, research into the social sciences, including human drivers
of climate change such as energy consumption, the impact on human
systems such as political institutions and economies, and mitigation
and adaptation options, is much less developed than research on the
natural climate system. One reason for the slow progress is that only
$25 million to $30 million of CCSP’s $1.7 billion annual budget is
devoted to such research. In addition, few social scientists are in
leadership positions at the participating federal agencies, making it
difficult for CCSP to increase emphasis in this area or to establish
links with the academic social science community.

Even where good scientific progress is being made, use of new
knowledge to support decision making and risk analysis is proceeding
slowly, according to the committee. For instance, although CCSP’s
temperature trends assessment was influential in this year’s report
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 19 other synthesis
and assessment products that were scheduled for release by now are
still in production.

One way CCSP could bridge the gap between science and decision making
would be to more closely examine the impact of climate change at
regional and local scales, the report says. More accurate models,
better regional observations, and the development of impact scenarios
will be required to improve predictions of how climate change will
affect smaller spatial scales.

Better communication from CCSP also will be critical for confronting
climate change at the local level. CCSP should build upon the two-way
dialogue envisioned in its strategic plan by engaging state and local
officials, nongovernmental organizations, industry, and the climate
change technology community. This dialogue should go beyond
communicating research results to asking what is needed from the
program. The committee acknowledged that more resources will be
needed to bolster such relationships.

A major hurdle to CCSP progress is the program director’s lack of
authority to allocate or prioritize funding across participating
agencies, the committee said. Likewise, many of the members of CCSP’s
interagency working groups have little budgetary authority to
implement the program’s research agenda. As a result, progress tends
to occur when the priorities of the 13 participating agencies
coincide with CCSP’s goals.

The committee emphasized that high-quality data from satellites have
been crucial to the advancement of climate change science. However, a
number of planned satellite missions have been cancelled or seriously
delayed, presenting perhaps the single greatest threat to the future
success of CCSP, according to the committee. Without these
satellites, scientists’ ability to monitor and predict climate change
will decline, even as the urgency of doing so increases.

The committee is holding a workshop in Washington, D.C., Oct. 15-17,
to discuss future priorities for CCSP research, which will be the
focus of its follow-up report.

###

The study was sponsored by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.
The National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering,
Institute of Medicine, and National Research Council make up the
National Academies. They are private, nonprofit institutions that
provide science, technology, and health policy advice under a
congressional charter. The Research Council is the principal
operating agency of the National Academy of Sciences and the National
Academy of Engineering. A committee roster follows.

Copies of Evaluating Progress Of The U.S. Climate Change Science
Program: Methods And Preliminary Results will be available from the
National Academies Press; tel. 202-334-3313 or 1-800-624-6242 or on
the Internet at HTTP://WWW.NAP.EDU.

news@nature.com – the best science journalism on the web
Published online: 18 September 2007; | doi:10.1038/news070917-3

Arctic sea ice at record low
Open waters in northern ocean highlight massive melting.

Daniel Cressey

Even for a society jaded by the continual
breaking of climate records, the retreat of
Arctic ice this year is stunning.

Sea-ice extent – the total number of 25 x 25
kilometer square sections of ocean covered by at
least 15% ice – in the Arctic Ocean melts from
about 16 million km2 every March to a minimum
sometime in September or October, the exact date
normally only being evident in retrospect. The US
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) says
the previous record absolute minimum was 5.32
million km2, set in 2005. This year has already
reached 4.14 million km2 – the lowest since
records began in the late 1970s.

This has opened the Northwest Passage – the most
direct shipping route between the Atlantic and
Pacific Oceans, from Russia along the north coast
of Canada to Europe. It is now navigable without
an icebreaker.

“I’m shocked daily, looking at the maps,” said
Marika Holland, sea-ice researcher at the US
National Center for Atmospheric Research in
Boulder, Colorado, earlier this month. “Where
it’s going to bottom out, I wouldn’t hazard a
guess.”

Some models suggest that if the current trends
continue, we’ll hit a first summer day entirely
free of sea ice sometime between 2050 and 2100
(1,2) – dates accepted by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Other studies predict it
could happen even earlier (3).

“The observations and the climate models both
point in the same direction, and that direction
is we will reach a seasonal ice-free state. I
wouldn’t say it’s inevitable; without some
important changes I think that it’s likely,” says
Holland. She adds: “In general, the models seem
to be conservative compared to the observations.”

Going, going, gone

As well as examining the area over which sea ice
is prominent, scientists also look at the actual
area of ice. Processing of NSIDC data by
researchers at the University of Illinois,
Urbana-Champaign, puts the previous 2005 record
for area at 4.01 million km2, with this year’s
sea-ice area currently at 2.92 million km2.

There are three ideas as to what could have
caused such a dramatic drop this year, according
to John Walsh, of the University of Illinois’s
Department of Atmospheric Sciences. Ocean waters
have been warmer in the past few summers, which
would have encouraged melting. This summer has
also been “unusually cloud free”, again
encouraging melting. Finally, he says, spring
temperatures over the Russian section of the
arctic were also higher than usual.

Feedback effects may make recovery from this new
low harder – ice reflects sunlight whereas open
sea absorbs it. So less ice this year will
militate against lots of ice next year, as well
as boosting global warming.

“This year does stand out as a jump downward,”
says Walsh. “I would say the odds favour an
extreme year next year too.”

Thin ice

Whether global warming should be blamed entirely
for this year’s low is not entirely clear.
Variation in the factors mentioned by Walsh is
not necessarily caused by climate change. But a
warmer planet has resulted in thinner ice, which
is more vulnerable to warm weather.

Initial results from a German survey that were
revealed last week show that arctic ice is
approximately 50% of its 2001 thickness.

As if to drive home how complex the sea-ice
problem is, as the Northern Hemisphere hits
record lows, at the other side of the world the
sea-ice area is close to breaking the record for
maximum area of 16.03 million km2.

As well as opening up trade routes, the reduction
of sea ice in the north will have consequences on
local wildlife too. The most visible example of
this will be polar bear populations; newly
released reports from the US Geological Survey
(USGS) suggest that two-thirds of the bears could
be lost within 50 years because of reduced sea
ice. Polar bears rely on the ice as a hunting
platform and the USGS models predict a 42% loss
of habit in the key summer breeding months.

References

1. Johannessen, O., et al. Tellus A 56 , 328 – 341 (2004).
2. Walsh, J.& Timlin, M., . Polar Research 22 , 75 – 82 (2003).
3. Stroeve, J., et al. Geophysical Research Letters 34 , L09501(2007).

Story from news@nature.com:
http://news.nature.com//news/2007/070917/070917-3.html

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______________________________________________

Public Release: 17-Sep-2007
Geophysical Research Letters
Rising surface temperatures drive back winter ice in Barents Sea,
Rutgers researchers find
Rising sea-surface temperatures in the Barents Sea, northeast of
Scandinavia, are the prime cause of the retreating winter ice edge
over the past 26 years, according to research by Jennifer Francis,
associate research professor at Rutgers’ Institute of Marine and
Coastal Sciences. The recent decreases in winter ice cover is clear
evidence that Arctic pack ice will continue on its trajectory of
rapid decline, Francis said.

Contact: Ken Branson
kbranson@ur.rutgers.edu
732-932-7084 x633
Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey

Public Release: 14-Sep-2007
Satellites witness lowest Arctic ice coverage in history
The area covered by sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk to its lowest
level this week since satellite measurements began nearly 30 years
ago, opening up the Northwest Passage — a long-sought short cut
between Europe and Asia that has been historically impassable.

Contact: Mariangela D’Acunto
mariangela.dacunto@esa.int
39-069-418-0856
European Space Agency
__________________________________________________________

EARTH LIKELY TO PASS DANGEROUS WARMING LIMITS

——————————–
“I think it’s well accepted that 2 degrees is
likely to be exceeded,” said Vicky Pope,
manager of the MetOffice Hadley Centre’s climate change research programme.

“Largely thanks to man-made greenhouse gas
emissions, temperatures worldwide rose some 0.7
degrees last century, and another 0.6 degrees is
locked in as the world’s oceans catch up with
quicker warming over land.”
————————————

Reuters News Service
11/9/2007

World Likely to Pass Dangerous Warming Limits – Study

LONDON – The world will probably exceed a global
warming limit which the European Union calls
dangerous, scientists at Britain’s MetOffice
Hadley Centre said on Tuesday, presenting a new,
5-year research programme.

But not all scientists agree, demonstrating a
shift in debate from whether climate change is
happening — on which where there is near
consensus — to how bad it will get and what to
do about it. Continue reading