CLIMATE CHANGE CRASHING HONEYBEE POPULATION ?

————————————————————————-
“Bees are such great environmental samplers. When they go out and forage, they go almost two miles away from the hive. That’s a very large area, about 2,500 acres, and the same size as the grid elements of a lot of climate ecosystem models,” Esaias said.

“If we’re headed into rougher weather, as it appears we are, we’ll have more difficulties with our bees,” Mussen said. “It won’t matter if you’re a backyard beekeeper or someone with 10,000 colonies.”
———————————————————————————————————-

Washington Post
Monday, September 10, 2007; A05

Weather May Account for Reduced Honey Crop
By Jane Black

That the 2007 honey crop has been disappointing won’t surprise anyone who has picked up the newspaper in recent months. Since early spring, colony collapse disorder (CCD), a disease that causes honeybees to suddenly, mysteriously disappear from their hives, has made headlinesaround the world. Without honeybees to pollinate, experts warn that one-third of the food supply — from apples and peaches to cucumbers and squash — is at risk.

Continue reading

Much of Greenland is on National Geographic’s map
of earthquake zones around the world.

Greenland’s ice is melting, plausibly faster than
scientists dare contemplate — James Hansen
recently issued an article on fast-shrinking ice and “scientific reticence.”

The article below is an oldie (2004), but seems
worth posting again, in light of trends for the
mighty glaciers of Greenland. And for the
glaciers of the Himalayas, for that matter.
Lance

——————–
“Historically, when big ice masses started to retreat, the
number of earthquakes increased,” Sauber said.
—————————————————————

Web address: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/08/040803095217.htm

Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Date: August 3, 2004

Retreating Glaciers Spur Alaskan Earthquakes

Science Daily – In a new (circa 2004) study, NASA
and United States Geological Survey (USGS)
scientists found that retreating glaciers in
southern Alaska may be opening the way for future
earthquakes.

The study examined the likelihood of increased
earthquake activity in southern Alaska as a
result of rapidly melting glaciers. As glaciers
melt they lighten the load on the Earth’s crust.
Tectonic plates, that are mobile pieces of the
Earth’s crust, can then move more freely. The
study appears in the July issue of the Journal of
Global and Planetary Change.

Jeanne Sauber of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight
Center, Greenbelt, Md., and Bruce Molnia, a
research geologist at USGS, Reston, Va., used
NASA satellite and global positioning system
receivers, as well as computer models, to study
movements of Earth’s plates and shrinking
glaciers in the area.

“Historically, when big ice masses started to
retreat, the number of earthquakes increased,”
Sauber said. “More than 10,000 years ago, at the
end of the great ice age, big earthquakes
occurred in Scandinavia as the large glaciers
began to melt. In Canada, many more moderate
earthquakes occurred as ice sheets melted there,”
she added.

Southern Alaskan glaciers are very sensitive to
climate change, Sauber added. Many glaciers have
shrunk or disappeared over the last 100 years.
The trend, which appears to be accelerating,
seems to be caused by higher temperatures and
changes in precipitation.

In southern Alaska, a tectonic plate under the
Pacific Ocean is pushing into the coast, which
creates very steep mountains. The high mountains
and heavy precipitation are critical for glacier
formation. The colliding plates create a great
deal of pressure that builds up, and eventually
is relieved by earthquakes.

The weight of a large glacier on top of these
active earthquake areas can help keep things
stable. But, as the glaciers melt and their load
on the plate lessens, there is a greater
likelihood of an earthquake happening to relieve
the large strain underneath.

Even though shrinking glaciers make it easier for
earthquakes to occur, the forcing together of
tectonic plates is the main reason behind major
earthquakes.

The researchers believe that a 1979 earthquake in
southern Alaska, called the St. Elias earthquake,
was promoted by wasting glaciers in the area. The
earthquake had a magnitude of 7.2 on the Richter
scale.

Along the fault zone, in the region of the St.
Elias earthquake, pressure from the Pacific plate
sliding under the continental plate had built up
since 1899 when previous earthquakes occurred.
Between 1899 and 1979, many glaciers near the
fault zone thinned by hundreds of meters and some
completely disappeared. Photographs of these
glaciers, many taken by Molnia during the last 30
years, were used to identify details within areas
of greatest ice loss.

Field measurements were also used to determine
how much the glacier’s ice thickness changed
since the late 19th century. The researchers
estimated the volume of ice that melted and then
calculated how much instability the loss of ice
may have caused. They found the loss of ice would
have been enough to stimulate the 1979 earthquake.

Along with global positioning system measurements
made by Sauber and Molnia a number of NASA
satellites were used to document glacier
variability. Data from Landsat-7 and the Shuttle
Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) were used to
study glacier extent and topography. Currently,
NASA’s ICESat satellite is being used to measure
how the glacier thicknesses are changing.

“In the future, in areas like Alaska where
earthquakes occur and glaciers are changing,
their relationship must be considered to better
assess earthquake hazard, and our satellite
assets are allowing us to do this by tracking the
changes in extent and volume of the ice, and
movement of the Earth,” Sauber said.

Note: This story has been adapted from a news
release issued by NASA/Goddard Space Flight
Center.

Copyright © 1995-2007 ScienceDaily LLC – All rights reserved

>
>
> *Lowest Streamflow in 110 Years Recorded in North Carolina*
>
> *RALEIGH, North Carolina*, August 31, 2007 (ENS) – The lowest average
> August streamflow in 110 years of North Carolina recordkeeping was
> measured last month on the Tar River at Tarboro, in the east-central
> part of the state.
>
> Streamflow figures released by the U.S. Geological Survey, USGS, on
> Friday show that the hot, dry days of August brought record lows to many
> of the state’s rivers and streams amidst worsening drought conditions.
> People across most of eastern North Carolina are being asked to conserve
> as much water as they can.
>
> The USGS and its federal, state, and local cooperators maintain 270
> streamgaging stations and 39 monitoring wells throughout North Carolina.
>
> These measurements show that the lowest average August streamflow on
> record occurred at 12 other monitoring stations in the state, but not
> compared to a 110 year period as on the Tar River.
>
> All of these other 12 sites have at least 35 years of record, and most
> of the sites have more than 50 years of record. Nine of those sites are
> located in central North Carolina, with the others on the coastal plain
> or in the mountains.
>
> August 2007 streamflows at 17 eastern North Carolina monitoring stations
> are lower than those measured during the 1998 – 2002 drought, when
> minimum streamflow records were established throughout much of the state.
>
> Records for the lowest daily streamflow ever measured were established
> at three monitoring stations.
>
> On August 17, streamflow at the Oconaluftee River, which runs through
> Swain County in western North Carolina, was 72 cubic feet per second,
> compared with the previous record low of 110 cubic feet per second
> established during the 1987 – 1988 drought.
>
> During more than half of August, streamflows at this site were lower
> than the previous record minimum.
>
> Record daily minimum streamflows also were established at Buckhorn Creek
> in Chatham County, southwest of Raleigh.
>
> On Fishing Creek in Edgecombe County streamflow has been measured
> continuously since 1923, and the minimum daily streamflow measured there
> in August 2007 was about 2.5 times lower than the previous minimum.
>
> Effects of the drought on groundwater levels are variable across the
> state, the USGS reports. Groundwater levels in unpumped wells in western
> North Carolina and in the outer coastal plain are approaching the levels
> observed during the 1998 – 2002 drought.
>
> Groundwater levels at most locations throughout central North Carolina
> however, are only slightly below average for August, despite the fact
> that streamflows at many locations are at record low levels for August.
>
> The heat and low streamflows also are affecting stream water
> temperatures, which can adversely affect fish and biological communities.
>
> Monthly average water temperatures at 16 monitoring stations across the
> state averaged about three degrees Fahrenheit greater than normal for
> the month.
>
> At Hyco River in Person County, where water temperature has been
> measured since 1985, streamflow temperatures in August were about four
> degrees greater than average.
>
> Water temperatures in the sounds and estuaries also are affected. In the
> Neuse River at New Bern, water temperature was about 3.5 degrees higher
> than normal for August.
>
> The U.S. Drought Monitoring system has classified 12 counties in the
> southwestern tip of the state to be undergoing the highest level of
> drought, called Exceptional Drought. They are Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay,
> Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Madison, Polk, Swain, and
> Transylvania counties.
>
> The North Carolina Drought Management Advisory Council is urging all
> water users in this area to limit water usage to those uses that are
> essential to ensure public health and safety and to prepare for the
> likelihood of community water systems requiring water rationing.
>
> Maps and graphs are on the USGS North Carolina Drought Watch
> < http://nc.water.usgs.gov/drought/> site.
>
> Follow the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural
> Resources Summary of Water Conservation Level Status by location at:
> http://www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/reporting/displaystate.php
>
> Copyright Environment News Service (ENS) 2007. All rights reserved.
>
>
>
>
> < http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/aug2007/2007-08-31-091.asp#>

SCIENCE / ENVIRONMENT | September 8, 2007
Warming Is Seen as Wiping Out Most Polar Bears
By JOHN M. BRODER and ANDREW C. REVKIN
Shrinking polar ice caps will cause at least two-thirds of the world’s polar bears
to disappear by 2050, government scientists reported on Friday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/08/science/earth/08polar.html?ex=1189915200&en=e7137da5dc23a02b&ei=5070&emc=eta1

————————————————————–
“After more than three years of study, the Government Accountability Office,
an arm of Congress, harshly faulted the Bush administration for doing little
to deal with the far-reaching effects of climate change rapidly taking place
in national parks, forests, marine sanctuaries and other federal lands and
waters – almost 30 percent of the United States.
—————————————

FORBES

HOME PAGE FOR THE WORLD’S BUSINESS LEADERS

GAO Faults Agencies Over Global Warming
By JOHN HEILPRIN 09.06.07, Associated Press

WASHINGTON –

Wildfires are flaring bigger and hotter in Alaska, the northern
Rockies and the Sierra Nevada. Bighorn sheep, mountain goats and
grizzly bears in Glacier National Park, along with deer and marsh
rabbits in the Florida Keys, face a housing crisis.

Glacier’s alpine meadows are disappearing, sea levels are rising in
the Keys and other federal lands are feeling the heat from global
warming – and the government is not doing much about it,
congressional investigators said in a report Thursday.

Climate change, however, does have things looking up for heat-loving
pests like beetles, grasshoppers and fungi. Spruce bark beetles are
chewing their way through 1,560 square miles of Alaska’s Kenai
Peninsula, including 620 square miles of spruce trees in Chugach
National Forest. Southern pine beetles are on the march in red spruce
forests of the Southeast.

Non-native grasses are fast replacing native shrubs in the Mojave
Desert, where the grasses also are fueling hotter and longer-lasting
wildfires. Even pinyon pines hundreds of years old that have survived
droughts before in the Southwest are dying off.

After more than three years of study, the Government Accountability
Office, an arm of Congress, harshly faulted the Bush administration
for doing little to deal with the far-reaching effects of climate
change rapidly taking place in national parks, forests, marine
sanctuaries and other federal lands and waters – almost 30 percent of
the United States.

The GAO said the Interior, Agriculture and Commerce departments have
failed to give their resource managers the guidance and tools they
need – computer models, temperature and precipitation data, climate
projects and detailed inventories of plant and animal species – to
cope with all the biological and physical effects from the warming.

“Without such guidance, their ability to address climate change and
effectively manage resources is constrained,” the report says.

The White House disagreed.

“President Bush is committed to addressing climate and providing the
agencies with the tools they need to address this important issue,”
said Kristen Hellmer, a spokeswoman for the White House Council on
Environmental Quality. “The president has provided unparalleled
financial investments for dozens of federal climate change programs,
many of which are directed at adaptation and developing and deploying
cleaner, more efficient energy technologies.”

The GAO investigators looked at four representative areas:

_The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary.

_Alaska’s Chugach National Forest.

_Montana’s Glacier National Park.

_Grasslands and shrubs managed by Interior’s Bureau of Land
Management in northwestern Arizona.

From those studies, investigators concluded: “Climate change has
already begun to adversely affect federal resources in a variety of
ways. Most experts with whom we spoke believe that these effects will
continue and likely intensify over the coming decades.”

What turned out to be a 184-page report was requested in March 2004
by Sens. John Kerry, D-Mass., and John McCain, R-Ariz, when Kerry was
running for the presidential nomination. He now wants legislation
requiring more climate change science.

“We waited a long time for this report to confirm the daunting
prospect that climate change is impacting our public lands from coast
to coast, and this administration is ill-equipped to respond,” Kerry
said.

Jamie Rappaport Clark, who was director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service in the Clinton administration and is now executive vice
president of Defenders of Wildlife, called the report an urgently
needed wake-up call for the nation.

“Global warming is and will continue to contribute to species
extinctions, flooding of coastal refuges and massive movements of
wildlife populations in search of more hospitable habitat,” she said.
“Polar bears and other imperiled species, wildlife refuges, parks and
myriad natural resources are at risk and Congress clearly needs to
provide more legislative direction because the agencies have failed
to do so.”

The effects are widespread.

In Glacier National Park, the number of glaciers in the park has
dropped from 150 to 26 since 1850. Some project that none will be
left within 25 to 30 years. In south-central Alaska, many of the
ponds shown in 1950 maps and aerial photographs are now grassy basins
with spruce and hardwood trees.

On the Keys’ receding coastlines, the climate threat extends “not
only to wildlife, but also to humans who live on the islands,” the
report says.

Bleaching of coral reefs in the Florida Keys, too, is being caused by
the stress of warmer water – which causes the coral to eject
microscopic algae that live within its tissues. That could harm the
fishing and tourism industries, because they are needed by fish and
other marine species and are popular with snorkelers and scuba divers.

The GAO said the Interior Department has ignored an order signed by
former secretary Bruce Babbitt on the last full day of the Clinton
administration that requires it to “consider and analyze potential
climate change impacts” in all its major decisions, long-range
planning, management of resources and setting of scientific
priorities.

In response, James Cason, an assistant interior secretary, told the
GAO that an agency task force with nearly 100 people began meeting in
April to study climate change, and the U.S. Geological Survey will
spend $27 million for climate research in 2008. He said Interior
“routinely takes actions to mitigate impacts of climate change.”

Forest Service Chief Abigail Kimbell said that studying one forest,
the Chugach, is not enough to draw conclusions about more than
300,000 square miles of national forests. Though Chugach’s management
plan does not address climate change, she said, 12 of the 155
national forests do.

David Sampson, deputy commerce secretary, said the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration is “at the forefront of global
efforts” to improve the ability to observe and forecast climate
change through computer modeling.

Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved.

>discussed here are only half the battle-& we need to push the other
>equally critical half of the debate!

ASW

Right on, although we gotta take care to define
the limits of restoration. If that means
restoration of roadlessness, it’s doable, and
necessary. But if we define it as a return to
historic conditions, forget it. The climate is
already committed to forcing a lot of change on
present conditions, let alone historic ones. Too
many of our friends and colleagues still imagine
that it’s possible to restore historic
conditions, but here are some excerpts from a
journal article that should help people do the
needed catching up.
Lance

Restoration Ecology
Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 170-176
JUNE 2006

Ecological Restoration and Global Climate Change
James A. Harris, Richard J. Hobbs, Eric Higgs,and James Aronson

Abstract
There is an increasing consensus that global
climate change occurs and that potential changes
in climate are likely to have important regional
consequences for biota and ecosystems. Å . In
particular, the usefulness of historical
ecosystem conditions as targets and references
must be set against the likelihood that restoring
these historic ecosystems is unlikely to be easy,
or even possible, in the changed biophysical
conditions of the future. ….

Introduction
Å . Ecological restoration, particularly in terms
of (re)afforestation and restoration of degraded
agricultural land, is often seen as one of the
important responses to climate change because
such activities help influence the planet’s
carbon budget in a positive way (e.g., Watson et
al. 2000; Munasinghe & Swart 2005). However,
climate change also has the potential to
significantly influence the practice and outcomes
of ecological restoration carried out for other
purposes because of the changed biophysical
settings that will be prevalent in the future.
Set against this is a tendency in much
restoration practice, and indeed in much of the
theoretical discussion on restoration, to respect
historical conditions either as the basis for
explicit objectives or to reset ecological
processes to defined predisturbance conditions
(e.g., White & Walker 1997; Swetnam et al. 1999;
Egan & Howell 2001). Å 

Climate Change Impacts
It is increasingly likely that the next century
will be characterized by shifts in global weather
patterns and climate regimesÅ The predictions,
although containing wide latitudes of potential
outcome, are all pointing the same way:

d Changes in weather patterns
d Increases in mean temperatures
d Changes in patterns of precipitation
d Increasing incidence of extreme climatic events
d Increasing sea level

These changes are likely to be sudden (in some
cases over periods of <5 years) and unpredictable as to timing and intensity.. Å  There is mounting evidence that the impacts of climate change on plant and animal species and ecosystems can already be detected (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al. 2003). Can impact on the human species be any less? Even without the predicted changes in climate over 50 years, the direct impacts of increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere would themselves have important implications for restoration practices. For instance, detailed studies of African savanna dynamics by Bond & Midgley (2000) and Bond et al. (2003) indicate that the balance between herbaceous and woody components of savannas is strongly linked to atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This suggests that historical tree-grass proportions are unlikely to be replicated under current or future elevated CO2 levels; hence, the restoration of savanna ecosystems to a previous state may not be possible in the future with reasonable effortÅ . This leads to the question ''how appropriate are historical ecosystem types when faced with rapidly changing biophysical conditions?'' Is it appropriate to consider a temperate woodland restoration endpoint in an area likely to be flooded by rising sea level? Why establish wetland in an area likely to become semiarid? Static Conservation and Restoration Objectives The predicted climate change scenarios will thus be particularly challenging in the context of national legislative frameworks designed to protect habitat types and important species. Å  in Canada, recent legislation to protect species at risk focuses primary attention on species instead of ecosystems at risk, which binds recovery and restoration efforts to targets that may become increasingly difficult and expensive to reach. As the biophysical envelope changes geographically, these sites will no longer support many of the species used in the notification and designation process, which must then bring their special status into question. End of excerpts. If you would like to get the complete article as pdf file, just ask. Lance Olsen lance@wildrockies.org _______________________________________________________________ "The green porcelain crabs were observed in Florida during 1990s, but have since appeared in large numbers in coastal waters of Georgia and South Carolina. Researchers don't know if they hitched a ride northward in the ballast of ships, whether warming water temperatures encouraged a northerly migration - or both." --------------------------------------------------- EurekAlert! AAAS Georgia Institute of Technology Public release date: 4-Sep-2007 Contact: John Toon jtoon@gatech.edu 404-894-6986 Georgia Institute of Technology Research News Tropical crab invades Georgia oyster reefs -- but the long-term impact can't be predicted Invasive species? A dime-sized tropical crab that has invaded coastal waters in the Southeast United States is having both positive and negative effects on oyster reefs, leaving researchers unable to predict what the creature's long-term impact will be. Unlike native crabs that eat baby oysters, mussels and fish, the green porcelain crab Petrolisthes armatus is a filter feeder, extracting its food from the water much as oysters do. The fast-reproducing invader therefore isn't directly attacking oyster populations, though it may be competing with them for food - and may impact the predators that normally attack the oysters. Two green porcelain crabs are shown among oyster shells. The non-native crabs are filter feeders and may compete with oysters and mussels for food. Click here for more information. Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology have spent more than three years studying the effects of the crab, and are reporting their findings in the journal Biological Invasions. The research, believed to be the first to document effects of the crab on oyster and mussel populations off the Southeast coast, was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Harry and Linda Teasley Endowment to Georgia Tech. "We're seeing opposing effects from these crabs," said Mark Hay, a professor in Georgia Tech's School of Biology. "They are probably having more impact on the ecosystem by being prey than by being predators. Other members of the ecosystem are feeding on them, and that is changing the rate at which fish and other crabs are feeding on the native species." The impact of the crabs is important because oysters are a "foundation species" essential to the health of coastal ecosystems because their reefs provide homes to dozens of other creatures. "These non-native crabs slow the rate of growth for organisms like oysters that they compete with, but they enhance the ability of those same organisms to survive when young," Hay noted. "They are probably competing with the oysters for food, but the native crabs have switched to eating these green porcelain crabs rather than eating the baby oysters. Even though their growth is suppressed, the baby oysters are not being attacked as much now by the native consumers." Though the crabs aren't killing existing populations of oysters, their long-term impact could still be significant. For instance, Hay noted, their availability as food could potentially increase the population of native crabs, disrupting the delicate balance between those predators and the oysters. But assessing the long-term impact of the crabs has been difficult because the creatures reproduce and grow rapidly, flooding the shallow coastal waters with their young. In research conducted off Skidaway Island and Sapelo Island on the Georgia coast, the researchers found "extraordinarily high" populations of the crab - as many as 11,000 individuals per square meter. To assess the impacts of the non-native crab population, graduate student Amanda Hollebone placed oysters and mussels into large baskets and located them on mud flats away from existing oyster reefs. Some of the baskets contained only oysters and mussels and were intended to serve as controls, some had a community of oysters, mussels, oyster drills and native mud crabs, while others had the same community spiked with non-native crabs. The distance from the existing oyster reefs was expected to prevent adult green porcelain crabs from reaching the baskets. However, the researchers found that within a month, the control baskets also had large populations of the green porcelain crabs that had reached the containers as juveniles settling from the water column. Entry of the crabs to the control baskets interfered with the researchers' ability to compare the traits of communities with and without the non-native crabs. "You get a true understanding of the sheer densities of these crabs only when you actually pick up or dig through clumps of oysters and oyster shell hash," said Hollebone, who is now a temporary assistant professor at Georgia Southern University in Statesboro. "Particularly in the summer months, I was never able to find a patch of oysters in the Savannah area that did not have the green porcelain crab." Because the green porcelain crabs quickly took over the control baskets, the researchers only had valid comparison data for 4-6 weeks. However, information from their baskets supported the observations made under more controlled - but less natural - conditions at Georgia Tech's laboratory at the Skidaway Institute of Oceanography near Savannah. As in the lab experiments, the researchers found that the crabs slowed the growth of small oysters, but not small mussels -- another common filter-feeder. The long-term effects of the massive crab population are difficult to predict. Their large numbers could lead to population growth among the native crabs and fish that now prefer eating them instead of their normal diet. But if the predator population should grow large enough to control the non-native crabs, that could lead to a decline in their numbers - and force the predators back to their traditional prey of oysters and mussels. "We're not sure what's going to happen," Hay said. "We can't really raise the alarm because we don't have the data to say these crabs are doing something bad. It's possible that they will not have a huge effect at all." Long-term observation of the oyster reefs may ultimately provide answers. "We have observed both positive and negative impacts on oysters and oyster-related biota at small scales, but we cannot definitively answer our concerns about oyster reefs at larger scales," Hollebone added. "With continued monitoring of large expanses of reefs, we may begin to understand the long-term, large-scale effects." The green porcelain crabs were observed in Florida during 1990s, but have since appeared in large numbers in coastal waters of Georgia and South Carolina. Researchers don't know if they hitched a ride northward in the ballast of ships, whether warming water temperatures encouraged a northerly migration - or both. Though not much is known about them in their native habitat, Hay said the crabs appear to be thriving in their new home. Population densities observed in the South Atlantic Bight are as much as 37 times higher than the greatest densities reported in their native habitat. ### Technical contact: Mark Hay (404-894-8429); E-mail: (mark.hay@biology.gatech.edu). [ Back to EurekAlert! ] [ Print Article | E-mail Article | Close Window ] --