Climate Change and Logging NOT Compatible!

Wildlife conservation has frequently been at odds
with logging, but the main argument in its favor
has often prevailed. The main argument about
logging is that forests are a renewable resource,
that they can recover from fire and cutting, that
they can be restored. This argument has been
progressively weakening, but the new trend toward
unsustainability seems still ignored by at least
a few in the wildlife conservation community,
despite a growing shift in mainstream
conservation thinking.

Logging is both more energy-intensive and
capital-intensive than letting (increasingly
endangered) forests stand where they are.
Lance Olsen

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“In 1991, a report said logging would have to be
reduced because changes in temperature and
rainfall in the South-West would lead to a drop
in productivity and a natural loss of trees.

“Dr Schultz said the report was never published
because the Government said that its climate
predictions were too severe and outdated. But the
estimates of a 20 per cent drop in rainfall and
temperature rises of 1C-2C in the next 50 years
were conservative compared with the latest
experiences and predictions.”
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http://www.thewest.com.au/printfriendly.aspx?ContentID=57016

Climate change forces cut to logging quota
4th February 2008, 6:00 WST

Logging of WA native forests will have to be
reduced in response to worsening climate change
but nothing is likely to happen for six years
because of a lack of scientific data,
Conservation Commission chairman John Bailey has
said.

Conservationists and scientists said it was not
acceptable that the research had not been done
and action was not under way because climate
change had been in mainstream planning and
management for at least 20 years.

Associate Professor Bailey said the impact of
climate change on sustainable logging rates would
be a focus of the mid-term review of the
2004-2013 Forest Management Plan due by the end
of the year.

While he believed changes would be needed, it was
not likely that enough solid information would be
available to alter the existing plan and changes
would instead be put in the next plan due in 2014.

It was not imperative that logging alterations
were made any earlier because the slow growth
rate of jarrah and karri meant climate impacts
would not be felt for 50-100 years. “I suspect
that there will be too many uncertainties and too
little need to act immediately but I suspect
there will be increasing need and an increasing
quality of science to be able to do that for the
next plan,” he said.

Conservation Council vice-president Beth Schultz
said logging rates had to be sustainable in
perpetuity and the climate change information
needed to ensure that should already be
available, given that government scientists had
warned that action was needed as early as 17
years ago.

In 1991, a report said logging would have to be
reduced because changes in temperature and
rainfall in the South-West would lead to a drop
in productivity and a natural loss of trees.

Dr Schultz said the report was never published
because the Government said that its climate
predictions were too severe and outdated. But the
estimates of a 20 per cent drop in rainfall and
temperature rises of 1C-2C in the next 50 years
were conservative compared with the latest
experiences and predictions.

University of WA school of earth and geographical
sciences researcher Ray Wills said to not have
the necessary science to make proper management
decisions in 2008 was “nothing less than
deplorable”. “A lot of our current distribution
of forest is determined by climate patterns that
reflect last century Š the climate this century
will be very different and as a consequence we
can’t afford delays on knowing what we’re doing,”
he said.

South-West scientist Peter Lane has lodged a
complaint with the Auditor-General about the way
climate change was considered when setting
current native timber logging rates.

A spokesman for the Department of Environment and
Conservation, which manages the forests, said a
lot of research into climate change and its
impact had been done and was continuing. Forest
plots were being monitored to measure change and
contribute to the next revision of the sustained
yields. Fire, dieback and the impact on
biodiversity also were being investigated.

SUELLEN JERRARD
http://www.thewest.com.au/printfriendly.aspx?ContentID=57016

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2008 La Nina Breaking Records Globally

These are news blurbs I got by searching Google News for “la nina.”

To read any of them, go to:

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&tab=wn&q=%22la+nina%22&btnG=Search

Lance

Bolivia: Floods OCHA Situation Report No. 9
ReliefWeb (press release), Switzerland – 1 hour ago
The Civil Defense reported a cumulative total of
58,929 affected families and 52 deaths due to the
rains and floods caused by the “La Niña”
phenomenon since …

La Nina may yet make it pour
The Age, Australia – 4 hours ago
VICTORIA may yet be drenched by drought-breaking
rains if the La Nina climatic event continues
well into the year, according to the Bureau of
Meteorology. …

Australia sees La Nina weather staying for months
Reuters UK, UK – Feb 12, 2008
SYDNEY (Reuters) – A mature La Nina weather
pattern in the Pacific continued to influence the
climate of eastern Australia and was forecast to
remain until …

La Nina may be partial cause of S China’s freeze-up
Xinhua, China – Feb 11, 2008
11 (Xinhua) — The current La Nina weather
phenomenon may just be a partial cause of south
China’s freeze-up at the start of 2008, said the
United Nations …

Canada back in the deep freeze as La Nina chills globe
National Post, Canada – Feb 11, 2008
The Arctic cold front impacting Canada may be
linked to La Nina, a sea-surface cooling pattern
in the Pacific which may have also contributed to
strong …

La Nina Pacific cooling may last to mid-year -UN
Reuters South Africa, South Africa – Feb 11, 2008
The cooling pattern, known as La Nina, alternates
naturally with a warming effect called El Nino,
and both have been associated with extreme
weather around …

La Niña Stronger against Bolivia
Prensa Latina, Cuba – Feb 13, 2008
La Paz, Feb 13 (Prensa Latina) UN experts
asserted on Wednesday that the natural phenomenon
La Niña hit Bolivia this year stronger than
previous years, …

Rains, Failed Talks in Bolivia Prensa Latina
all 3 news articles »

UN: La Niña weather pattern likely to last for some months
News Today Online, Philippines – Feb 12, 2008
The current La Niña weather pattern is expected
to strengthen and continue through the middle of
the year, bringing wetter conditions to Australia
and the …

La Nina strengthens, may persist into summer
Reuters UK, UK – Feb 7, 2008
NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) – The La Nina weather
anomaly has strengthened and there is a chance it
could plague countries around the Asia-Pacific
rim until …

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Climate and Vegetative Ecosystems

Web address:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071027180556.htm

Land Clearing Triggers Hotter Droughts, Australian Research Shows

ScienceDaily (Oct. 31, 2007) – A University of Queensland scientist
has led groundbreaking research which shows that clearing of native
vegetation has made recent Australian droughts hotter.

In an Australian first, they applied the CSIRO Mark 3 climate model,
satellite data and the DNRW supercomputer, and showed that 150 years
of land clearing added significantly to the warming and drying of
eastern Australia.

“Our work shows that the 2002-03 El Nino drought in eastern Australia
was on average two degrees Centigrade hotter because of vegetation
clearing,”  said Dr Clive McAlpine  of the University of Queensland.

“Based on this research, it would be fair to say that the current
drought has been made worse by past clearing of native vegetation.
Our findings highlight that it is too simplistic to attribute climate
change purely to greenhouse gases,” he continued. “Protection and
restoration of Australia’s native vegetation needs to be a critical
consideration in mitigating climate change.”

Dr McAlpine of UQ’s Centre for Remote Sensing and Spatial Information
Science and Mr Jozef Syktus, principal scientist in the Queensland
Natural Resources and Water Department (DNRW), headed a study which
will be published later this year in Geophysical Research Letters,
the journal of the American Geophysical Union. Co-authors are Dr
Hamish McGowan, Associate Professor Stuart Phinn and Dr Ravinesh Deo
– all of UQ – Dr Peter Lawrence of the University of Colorado and Dr
Ian Watterson of CSIRO.

The researchers found that mean summer rainfall decreased by between
four percent and 12 percent in eastern Australia, and by four percent
and eight percent in southwest Western Australia. These were the
regions of most extensive historical clearing.

“Consistent with actual climate trends, eastern Australia was between
0.4 degrees Centigrade and two degrees Centigrade warmer, and
southwest Western Australia was between 0.4 degrees and 0.8 degrees
warmer.

“Native vegetation moderates climate fluctuations, and this has
important, largely unrecognised consequences for agriculture and
stressed land and water resources,” Dr McAlpine said.

Australian native vegetation holds more moisture that subsequently
evaporates and recycles back as rainfall. It also reflects into space
less shortwave solar radiation than broadacre crops and improved
pastures, and this process keeps the surface temperature cooler and
aids cloud formation.

The project, Modeling Impacts of Vegetation Cover Change on Regional
Climate, was funded by Land and Water Australia Research and
Development Corporation (Canberra) as part of their Innovation
Research Program.

Adapted from materials provided by University Of Queensland.
University Of Queensland (2007, October 31). Land Clearing Triggers
Hotter Droughts, Australian Research Shows. ScienceDaily. Retrieved
February 15, 2008, from
http://www.sciencedaily.com-/releases/2007/10/071027180556.htm

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Stabilize Climate? Zero Emissions!

——————————————-
” … halfway measures won’t do the job. To stabilize our planet’s
climate, we need to find ways to kick the carbon habit altogether.”
—————————————–

Carnegie Institution
Public release date: 14-Feb-2008

Contact: Ken Caldeira
kcaldeira@stanford.edu
650-704-7212

Stabilizing climate requires near-zero carbon emissions

Now that scientists have reached a consensus that carbon dioxide
emissions from human activities are the major cause of global
warming, the next question is: How can we stop it” Can we just cut
back on carbon, or do we need to go cold turkey” According to a new
study by scientists at the Carnegie Institution, halfway measures
won’t do the job. To stabilize our planet’s climate, we need to find
ways to kick the carbon habit altogether.

In the study, to be published in Geophysical Research Letters,
climate scientists Ken Caldeira and Damon Matthews used an Earth
system model at the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global
Ecology to simulate the response of the Earth’s climate to different
levels of carbon dioxide emission over the next 500 years. The model,
a sophisticated computer program developed at the University of
Victoria, Canada, takes into account the flow of heat between the
atmosphere and oceans, as well as other factors such as the uptake of
carbon dioxide by land vegetation, in its calculations.

This is the first peer-reviewed study to investigate what level of
carbon dioxide emission would be needed to prevent further warming of
our planet.

“Most scientific and policy discussions about avoiding climate change
have centered on what emissions would be needed to stabilize
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” says Caldeira. “But stabilizing
greenhouse gases does not equate to a stable climate. We studied what
emissions would be needed to stabilize climate in the foreseeable
future.”

The scientists investigated how much climate changes as a result of
each individual emission of carbon dioxide, and found that each
increment of emission leads to another increment of warming. So, if
we want to avoid additional warming, we need to avoid additional
emissions.

With emissions set to zero in the simulations, the level of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere slowly fell as carbon “sinks” such as the
oceans and land vegetation absorbed the gas. Surprisingly, however,
the model predicted that global temperatures would remain high for at
least 500 years after carbon dioxide emissions ceased.

Just as an iron skillet will stay hot and keep cooking after the
stove burner’s turned off, heat held in the oceans will keep the
climate warm even as the heating effect of greenhouse gases
diminishes. Adding more greenhouse gases, even at a rate lower than
today, would worsen the situation and the effects would persist for
centuries.

“What if we were to discover tomorrow that a climate catastrophe was
imminent if our planet warmed any further” To reduce emissions enough
to avoid this catastrophe, we would have to cut them close to zero –
and right away,” says Caldeira.

Global carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations are both growing at record rates. Even if we could
freeze emissions at today’s levels, atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations would continue to increase. If we could stabilize
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, which would require deep
cuts in emissions, the Earth would continue heating up. Matthews and
Caldeira found that to prevent the Earth from heating further, carbon
dioxide emissions would, effectively, need to be eliminated.

While eliminating carbon dioxide emissions may seem like a radical
idea, Caldeira sees it as a feasible goal. “It is just not that hard
to solve the technological challenges,” he says. “We can develop and
deploy wind turbines, electric cars, and so on, and live well without
damaging the environment. The future can be better than the present,
but we have to take steps to start kicking the CO2 habit now, so we
won’t need to go cold turkey later.”

###

Source: Matthews, H. D., and K. Caldeira (2008), Stabilizing climate
requires near-zero emissions, Geophysical Research Letters,
doi:10.1029/2007GL032388, in press.

Ken Caldeira is a climate scientist in the Carnegie Institution
Department of Global Ecology at Stanford University. Damon Matthews
is a climate scientist in the Concordia University Department of
Geography, Planning, and Environment in Montreal, Canada.

The Carnegie Institution (www.CIW.edu) has been a pioneering force in
basic scientific research since 1902. It is a private, nonprofit
organization with six research departments throughout the U.S.
Carnegie scientists are leaders in plant biology, developmental
biology, astronomy, materials science, global ecology, and Earth and
planetary science. The Department of Global Ecology, located in
Stanford, California, was established in 2002 to help build the
scientific foundations for a sustainable future. Its scientists
conduct basic research on a wide range of large-scale environmental
issues, including climate change, ocean acidification, biological
invasions, and changes in biodiversity.

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