Month: November 2008

This is significant. Bear-in mind-if increasing SSTs (sea-surface temps) in the tropics bring more clouds/rain in general (a very distinct probability), such an upward trend in DCC storm frequency/intensity could be aborted-or (perhaps more likely) become cyclic. Either way-be ready for Katrina & Rita’s siblings…

ASW

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
VOL. 35, L19805, doi:10.1029/2008GL034562, 2008

Frequency of severe storms and global warming

Hartmut H. Aumann et al

Abstract

We use five years of data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder
(AIRS) to develop a correlation between the frequency of Deep
Convective Clouds (DCC) and the zonal mean tropical surface
temperature. AIRS data show that the frequency of DCC in the tropical
oceans is very temperature sensitive, increasing 45% per 1 K increase
of the zonal mean surface temperature. The combination of the
sensitivity of the DCC frequency to temperature indicates that the
frequency of DCC, and as a consequence the frequency of severe
storms, increases at the rate of 6%/decade with the current +0.13
K/decade rate of global warming. This result is only qualitatively
consistent with state-of-the-art climate models, where the frequency
of the most intense rain events increases with global warming.

Received 2 May 2008; accepted 18 August 2008; published 3 October 2008.

Keywords: Deep Convective Clouds; AIRS; atmospheric sounding;
hyper-spectral; infrared.

Index Terms: 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1616 Global
Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 3314
Atmospheric Processes: Convective processes; 1817 Hydrology: Extreme
events; 3362 Atmospheric Processes: Stratosphere/troposphere
interactions.

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—–Original Message—–
From: First Peoples Human Rights Coalition
[mailto:info@firstpeoplesrights.org]
Sent: Tuesday, November 25, 2008 7:25 AM
Subject: Talks Could Learn from Indigenous Groups

From the article below: “Governments think of indigenous communities, who may face displacement or even the eradication of their homelands, as being part of the problem, when in reality they should be seen as part of the solution,” he [Mark Lattimer, Executive Director of Minority Rights Group] added.”
_______________________
[Article forwarded by Jack Hicks-<mailto:arcticnews@jackhicks.com>]

IPS
CLIMATE CHANGE: Talks Could Learn From Indigenous Groups
At: http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=44810
Thalif Deen

UNITED NATIONS, Nov 21 (IPS)-As the United Nations readies for a key climate change meeting in Poland next month, a London-based human rights group warns that any new deal on global warming would be seriously compromised if the most vulnerable groups, specifically indigenous peoples, are shut out of the negotiations.

Continue reading

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“… atmospheric CO2 may increase more rapidly in the future than
carbon-only models predict. ”
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Nature Geoscience
VOL 1 | OCTOBER 2008 |

CARBON CYCLE
Fertilizing change

Carbon cycle-climate feedbacks are expected to diminish the size of
the terrestrial carbon sink over the next century. Model simulations
suggest that nitrogen availability is likely to play a key role in
mediating this response

First paragraph

“Undisturbed terrestrial ecosystems soak up 2.8 Gt of carbon per year,
equivalent to 30% of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, this
carbon sink is expected to weaken with global warming: climate
simulations that incorporate carbon cycle-climate feedbacks predict
significant decreases in terrestrial uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide
over the next century, and thus a positive feedback between the carbon
cycle and climate. Importantly, however, these coupled carbon cycle-climate
models have ignored the impacts of nitrogen on the terrestrial carbon
sink. In a recent article published in the Journal of Climate, Sokolov and
co-workers use a climate model to show that carbon-nitrogen interactions
significantly reduce netterrestrial carbon uptake, even though, at least for
small to moderate climate warming, enhanced nitrogen availability stimulates
plant growth and changes the sign of the carbon cycle-climate feedback. This
suggests that atmospheric CO2 may increase more rapidly in the future than
carbon-only models predict. ”

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