Year: 2008

http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=876

“The researchers estimated that there is a 10 percent chance that
Lake Mead could be dry by 2014. They further predict that there is a
50 percent chance that reservoir levels will drop too low to allow
hydroelectric power generation by 2017.”

“Barnett said that the researchers chose to go with conservative
estimates of the situation in their analysis, though the water
shortage is likely to be more dire in reality. The team based its
findings on the premise that climate change effects only started in
2007, though most researchers consider human-caused changes in
climate to have likely started decades earlier. They also based their
river flow on averages over the past 100 years, even though it has
dropped in recent decades.

“Today, we are at or beyond the sustainable limit of the Colorado
system. The alternative to reasoned solutions to this coming water
crisis is a major societal and economic disruption in the desert
southwest; something that will affect each of us living in the
region” the report concluded.

http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=876

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Subject: Climate Change and Mountain Ecosystems
From: “Nicky Phear” <nicky.phear@cfc.umt.edu>
Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2008 14:53:41 -0700

Climate Change: Moving from Science to Solutions

The Wilderness Lecture Series continues Tuesday, February 12th,
from 7:00-8:30 pm in Urey Underground Lecture Hall.  Dan Fagre, a
Research Ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, will give a
talk titled: Cascading Climate Change Impacts on the Crown of the
Continent Ecosystem.

The Speaker
Dr. Daniel Fagre is Research Ecologist and Global Change Research
Coordinator for the Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center of the
U. S. Geological Survey.  He is stationed at Glacier National Park,
where he works to understand how global-scale environmental changes
will affect our mountain ecosystems.  He received his Ph.D. from
the University of California, Davis, and has held positions in
universities and several federal agencies.  He helped establish the
Western Mountain Initiative, a program to tie mountain science
across different areas, and is active in several international
science networks that address mountain issues.  He co-authored a
book on national parks and protected areas published in 2005 and
had a co-edited book on sustaining Rocky Mountain landscapes
published earlier this year.  He is currently lead author for one
of the reports for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program that
will go to Congress.

The Lecture
In the past three decades climate change has become a pronounced
driver of ecosystem change.  Changes in phenology, range shifts of
species, and increases in disturbances such as wildland fire have
all reflected ecosystem scale responses to a warming biosphere.
There also have been abrupt, nonlinear changes in ecosystems where
the levels of response to incremental increases in global
temperature have suddenly changed trajectories and lead to rapid
change.  These thresholds of ecological change are not well
understood but are potentially critical to our adaptation
strategies for managing natural resources in a rapidly changing
world.  Dan Fagre will describe recent changes in the Northern
Rocky Mountains and the potential “tipping points” that may be
crossed soon.

The Series
The 2008 Wilderness Lecture Series is co-sponsored by the UM
Wilderness Institute and Center for Ethics.  Speakers will focus on
addressing the challenge of climate change and what sorts of
solutions make sense practically and politically.  UM students can
earn one credit for attending the lecture series.  Information
about registering to receive credit for attendance is available by
calling the Wilderness Institute at 406-243-5361.

<http://www.forestry.umt.edu/Research/MFCES/programs/wi/lectureseries.htm>A

full series schedule is available here. MCAT will air the series on
public T.V. with dates TBA.

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