Security Risk From Climate Underestimated

Security risk from climate said underestimated
Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:29pm EDT  Email | Print | Share| Reprints | Single

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By Jeremy Lovell

LONDON (Reuters) – Countries around the world have hugely underestimated
the potential conflicts stemming from climate change and must invest
heavily to correct that mistake, a report said on Wednesday.

The report for Britain’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) by
environment expert Nick Mabey said the response had been “slow and
inadequate” and to rectify it spending needed to surge to levels
comparable to sums spent on counter-terrorism.

“If climate change is not slowed and critical environmental thresholds are
exceeded, then it will become a primary driver of conflicts between and
within states,” said the report “Delivering Climate Security:
International Security Responses to a Climate-Changed World”.

“In the next decades, climate change will drive as significant a change in
the strategic security environment as the end of the Cold War,” said
Mabey.

“If uncontrolled, climate change will have security implications of
similar magnitude to the World Wars, but which will last for centuries,”
he added in the report for the RUSI, a leading forum for defense and
security issues.

Experts in the sector should identify and analyze climate-induced security
hot spots and communicate these findings to world leaders and the public
at large.

The report said conflicts over natural resources had been a regular
feature of history, but that the changing climatic conditions would
exacerbate the problems with hundreds of millions of people displaced by
droughts, floods and famines.

This in turn would affect the livelihoods of billions more people with the
world’s population forecast to climb to nine billion people by mid-century
from 6.5 billion now.

The report said that Europe, which is leading the way in tackling global
warming caused by burning fossil fuels for power and transport, was only
spending the equivalent of 0.5 percent of its combined defense budget on
the climate crisis.

It said this was due to a systematic undervaluing of the scale and
security implications of extreme climate change.

“A failure to acknowledge and prepare for the worst case scenario is as
dangerous in the case of climate change as it is for managing the risks of
terrorism or nuclear weapons proliferation,” the report said.

“Unless achieving climate security is seen as a vital and existential
national interest it will be too easy to delay action on the basis of
avoiding immediate costs and perceived threats to economic
competitiveness,” the report said.

(Editing by Keith Weir)
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