Category: RT Newswire

—————————————————————————————————
” … they showed that when grain prices reached
a certain level, wars erupted.”
—————————————-

Georgia Institute of Technology Research News
Public release date: 21-Nov-2007

Contact: Abby Vogel
avogel@gatech.edu
404-385-3364

New research shows climate change triggers wars and population decline
Reduced agricultural productivity seems to initiate conflict

Climate change may be one of the most significant threats facing humankind. A new study shows that long-term climate change may ultimately lead to wars and population decline.

The study, published November 19 in the early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), revealed that as temperatures decreased centuries ago during a period called the Little Ice Age, the number of wars increased, famine occurred and the population declined.

Data on past climates may help accurately predict and design strategies for future large and persistent climate changes, but acknowledging the historic social impact of these severe events is an important step toward that goal, according to the study’s authors.

“Even though temperatures are increasing now, the same resulting conflicts may occur since we still greatly depend on the land as our food source,” said Peter Brecke, associate professor in the Georgia Institute of Technology’s Sam Nunn School of International Affairs and co-author of the study.

This new study expands previous work by David Zhang of the University of Hong Kong and lead author of the study.

“My previous research just focused on Eastern China. This current study covers a much larger spatial area and the conclusions from the current research could be considered general principles,” said Zhang.

Brecke, Zhang and colleagues in Hong Kong, China and the United Kingdom perceived a possible connection between temperature change and wars because changes in climate affect water supplies, growing seasons and land fertility, prompting food shortages. These shortages could lead to conflict – local uprisings, government destabilization and invasions from neighboring regions – and population decline due to bloodshed during the wars and starvation.

To study whether changes in temperature affected the number of wars, the researchers examined the time period between 1400 and 1900. This period recorded the lowest average global temperatures around 1450, 1650 and 1820, each separated by slight warming intervals.

The researchers collected war data from multiple sources, including a database of 4,500 wars worldwide that Brecke began developing in 1995 with funding from the U.S. Institute of Peace. They also used climate change records that paleoclimatologists reconstructed by consulting historical documents and examining indicators of temperature change like tree rings, as well as oxygen isotopes in ice cores and coral skeletons.

Results showed a cyclic pattern of turbulent periods when temperatures were low followed by tranquil ones when temperatures were higher. The number of wars per year worldwide during cold centuries was almost twice that of the mild 18th century.

The study also showed population declines following each high war peak, according to population data Brecke assembled. The population growth rate of the Northern Hemisphere was elevated from 1400-1600, despite a short cooling period beginning in the middle of the 15th century. However, during the colder 17th century, Europe and Asia experienced more wars of great magnitude and population declines.

In China, the population plummeted 43 percent between 1620 and 1650. Then, a dramatic increase in population occurred from 1650 until a cooling period beginning in 1800 caused a worldwide demographic shock.

The researchers examined whether these average temperature differences of less than one degree Celsius were enough to cause food shortages. By assuming that agricultural production decreases triggered price increases, they showed that when grain prices reached a certain level, wars erupted. The ecological stress on agricultural production triggered by climate change did in fact induce population shrinkages, according to Brecke.

Global temperatures are expected to rise in the future and the world’s growing population may be unable to adequately adapt to the ecological changes, according to Brecke.

“The warmer temperatures are probably good for a while, but beyond some level plants will be stressed,” explained Brecke. “With more droughts and a rapidly growing population, it is going to get harder and harder to provide food for everyone and thus we should not be surprised to see more instances of starvation and probably more cases of hungry people clashing over scarce food and water.”

————————————————————————————————–

Don’t worry about global “warming,” rapid climate change is all the buzz
now.

——– Original Message ——–
** Experts warn of ‘abrupt’ warming **
A UN panel agrees a landmark report on tackling climate change, warning
of “abrupt and irreversible” impacts.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/7098902.stm

By Skyler Simmons

Yep, for any of you who were still under the illusion that the Democrats might actually do something useful in regards to climate change, don’t get your hopes up. The most recent Democratic presidential debate on Nov 15 was sponsored by, among other climate criminals, our wonderful friends in the coal industry. Americas Power a new front group for the dirty coal industry had its logo prominently displayed on a full page ad in the New York Times for the most recent round of Democratic debates.

Using the slogan “Clean Coal, Americas Power” this corporate greenwash group counts among it members a laundry list of the worst polluters in the US including Duke Energy, Peabody Coal, and American Electric Power, all of whom are currently attempting to build new coal plants using old dirty technology. Not to mention Arch Coal and Massey Energy two of the largest coal companies responsible for the destructive practice known as mountaintop removal mining. Americas Power’s goals appear to be:

– Expand coal production by using government-funded technology to convert coal to vehicle fuels, thereby producing twice as much global warming pollution as gas production, and consuming huge amounts of water to boot.
– Crank out as many new power plants as possible before limits on greenhouse gas pollution take effect. Nearly 150 coal-fired power plants are already on the drawing board.
– Delay and weaken any limits on CO2 pollution, even though scientists tell us we need a 90% reduction by 2050.
– Maintain the destructive practice of mountaintop removal coal mining.

Once again the coal industry is trying to paint itself as a clean industry, while continuing business as usual. Clean coal is an oxymoron. From mining to burning the coal industry is responsible for countless environmental and human rights atrocities. In the meantime the Democratic Party appears to be embracing the coal industry, which if not curtailed will surely push us passed the tipping point of catastrophic climate change.

The sponsorship of the Democratic Party by the coal industry is yet another reason why we must look beyond electoral politics to solve the climate crisis. It is clear that both parties are in the pockets of corporations and only a grassroots movement organizing for people’s power, not corrupt political organizations, will be effective in bringing about the changes we need in the face of climate change.

EurekAlert! AAAS

NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Public release date: 15-Nov-2007

Contact: Lynn Chandler
lynn.chandler-1@nasa.gov
301-286-2806

Forests damaged by Hurricane Katrina become major carbon source

With the help of NASA satellite data, a research team has estimated that Hurricane Katrina killed or severely damaged 320 million large trees in Gulf Coast forests, which weakened the role the forests play in storing carbon from the atmosphere. The damage has led to these forests releasing large quantities of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

The August 2005 hurricane affected five million acres of forest across Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama, with damage ranging from downed trees, snapped trunks and broken limbs to stripped leaves.

Young growing forests play a vital role in removing carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, from the atmosphere by photosynthesis, and are thus important in slowing a warming climate. An event that kills a great number of trees can temporarily reduce photosynthesis, the process by which carbon is stored in plants. More importantly, all the dead wood will be consumed by decomposers, resulting in a large carbon dioxide release to the atmosphere as the ecosystem exhales it as forest waste product. The team’s findings were published Nov. 15 in the journal Science.

“The loss of so many trees will cause these forests to be a net source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere for years to come,” said the study’s lead author Jeffrey Chambers, a biologist at Tulane University in New Orleans, La. “If, as many believe, a warming climate causes a rise in the intensity of extreme events like Hurricane Katrina, we’re likely to see an increase in tree mortality, resulting in an elevated release of carbon by impacted forest ecosystems.”

Young forests are valued as carbon sinks, which remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it in growing vegetation and soils. In the aftermath of a storm as intense as Katrina, vegetation killed by the storm decomposes over time, reversing the carbon storage process, making the forest a carbon source.

“The carbon cycle is intimately linked to just about everything we do, from energy use to food and timber production and consumption,” said Chambers. “As more and more carbon is released to the atmosphere by human activities, the climate warms, triggering an intensification of the global water cycle that produces more powerful storms, leading to destruction of more trees, which then act to amplify climate warming.”

Chambers and colleagues from the University of New Hampshire in Durham, N.H., studied Landsat 5 satellite data captured before and after Hurricane Katrina to pull together a reliable field sampling of tree deaths across the entire range of forests affected by Katrina. They found that some forests were heavily damaged while others like the cypress-tupelo swamp forests fared remarkably well.

The NASA-built Landsat 5, part of the Landsat series of Earth-observing satellites, takes detailed images of the Earth’s surface. Chambers combined results from the Landsat image sampling with data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite to estimate the size of the entire forested area affected by Katrina. The instrument can detect minute changes in the color spectrum on the land below, enabling it to measure differences in the percentage of live and dead vegetation. This helps researchers improve their estimates of changes in carbon storage and improves their ability to track the location of carbon sinks and sources.

The field samples and satellite images, along with results from computer models that simulate the kind of vegetation and other traits that make up the forests, were used to measure the total tree loss the hurricane inflicted. The scientists then calculated total carbon losses to be equivalent to 60-100 percent of the net annual carbon sink in U.S. forest trees.

“It is surprising to learn that one extreme event can release nearly as much carbon to the atmosphere as all U.S. forests can store in an average year,” said Diane Wickland, manager of the Terrestrial Ecology Program at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “Satellite data enabled Chambers’ research team to pin down the extent of tree damage so that we now know how these kinds of severe storms affect the carbon cycle and our atmosphere. Satellite technology has really proven its worth in helping researchers like Chambers assess important changes in our planet’s carbon cycle.”

###

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2007/katrina_carbon.html

Written by:
Gretchen Cook-Anderson
Goddard Space Flight Center
========================================