SCIENCE
VOL 322 24 OCTOBER 2008
Risk Communication on Climate:
Mental Models and Mass Balance
Public confusion about the urgency of reductions in greenhouse
gas emissions results from a basic misconception.
John D. Sterman
Excerpts:
“Nearly two-thirds of the participants asserted that atmospheric GHGs can stabilize
even though emissions continuously exceed removal–analogous to arguing a bathtub
continuously filled faster than it drains will never overflow. Most believe that
stopping the growth of emissions stops the growth of GHG concentrations. The
erroneous belief that stabilizing emissions would quickly stabilize the climate
supports wait-and-see policies but violates basic laws of physics.”
” …climate scientists should partner with psychologists,
sociologists, and other social scientists to communicate the science in ways that
foster hope and action rather than denial and despair. Doing so does not require
scientists to abandon rigor or objectivity. People of good faith can debate the
costs and benefits of policies to mitigate the risks of climate change, but policy
should not be based on mental models that violate fundamental physical principles.”
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